tv Street Signs CNBC February 8, 2013 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
howls ] how about no more surprises? now you can get all the online trading tools you need without any surprise fees. ♪ it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. in case you needed any proof as to why the post office is cutting back on saturday delivery. the post office said today it lost $1.3 billion in the last quarter of 2012. and that was the better than the 3.3 billion it lost in the same quart ear year earlier. of course, sue, the last quarter of the year is their good quarter. that's when everybody is mailing. >> right. it's holiday.
mailing christmas packages. >> improvement over the year befo before. >> that's a little scary. >> the market is improving over the last couple of days. >> is. it may end in the green this week. making it six straight weeks of gains for the dow jones industrial average. up about 48 points. s&p is up above significantly that 1500 mark and technically you want to hold the 1500 mark. it is doing it quite nicely today. nasdaq is strong, up almost a full percent on the trading session. >> and folks are above like a 13-year high or something like this. >> absolutely. >> have a good weekend, sue. >> see you next week. >> that will do it for "power lunch." >> "street signs" begins right now. have a great afternoon, everybody. stay warm. >> slippery when wet is your street sign of the day. while you smart ones in miami have fun in the sun, we are freezing up here, but it hasn't stopped the markets.
stocks stay hot. generator companies also en fs fuego. are these two companies really the same? we will find out because both ceos are exclusively here. plus, the year of the snake, got off to a strong start in china. can you really trust the numbers? what new jersey just did that has casino stocks soaring. mandy. >> soent be sssilly, sssully. >> major averages wiping out their averages for the week. dow is down but other two are positive. so they may be able to choke up the sixth week of gains and keep their perfect record for 2013. as i say, the dow still has to close above 14,009. and it is now below 14,000. the nasdaq is on pace to close its highest since november 2000. let's get straight down to the floor of the nyse.
bob, you are probably the only person there. looks like traders are going home preparing for the storm. >> no, no, no, it just started snowing, lightly snowing. the answer is the nyse is open. we are all here. everyone is here until the bitter end. markets are holding up very well. let me show you the mainland chinese market add good week. up again. trade data is strong that chinese reported. s&p 500 looking for a gain for the week. we had good trade data here in the united states. bottom line is our gdp numbers are likely revised upward for the fourth quarter. japan, spain, germany, on the down side. japan's first down week in 13 weeks. take a look at sectors, major indicies. mid cap essentially at historic highs. we will see if that makes it there to the close. mandy? >> bob pisani, thank you.
we are tracking nemo, two huge storm systems colliding. possible blizzard conditions over the next 24 hours. winter storm has everyone on edge as you can imagine here in the northeast. first up, there is some good news for the new york area because the accumulation forecast has been lowered a bit from two feet down to just six to ten inches. but here is the bad news. it is still on track to bring up to two plus feet in parts of new england. live in hartford, connecticut, give us the latest on how this storm is tracking. >> reporter: mandy, it is definitely a good one and big one, if you like storms. this is taking the northeast by storm. we are seeing the effects in connecticut. entire state under a blizzard warning. the governor declared a state of emergency in advance of the storm. can you see how much is coming down already and the snow and wind picked up significantly in the last two hours and many highways around connecticut shut down already and travel is difficult with the difficult
asking people to stay off the roads. so that plows and street crews can get out clear these roads. travel though difficult also in the air. all of the flights out of bradley international airport near hartford have been cancelled now. and train and bus service will be shutting down later today. and people at home are not in the clear as well either though. because power is a big concern for those folks. power outages very likely. in fact, the governor saying there could be as much as 30% of utilities going out because of the storm. they have brought in several hundred people from out of state hoping they can help with the repair but high wind will make that tough, brian. so this is going to be a big storm, no question. >> certainly will be. janel, you stay safe. we will hear from you again, i'm sure. thank you. when a storm is brewing, there is one thing can you count on. a big spike? generator sales. with our old structures around here, people have to assume that power will good out. in the generator market, you
think of two things. generac and brigs and stratton. they are the same but also different. generac is u.s. company while briggs sean stratton does work around the world. and they are an engine company, not just power generation company. let's talk about the storms, infrastructure and yes, joining us first, from milwaukee is aaron, ceo. many of us used to think that generators were a luxury. with our infrastructure and storms, it is also a necessity, unless you want to be out of power for a week. do you see a paradime shift and how people in the northeast think about your products in. >> we do, brian.
we see this shift occurring nationwide. obviously the northeast has been hit with a lot of outages here the last few years but the infrastructure, you mentioned in your comments, there's a huge investment gap in the infrastructure, in particular in the grid in distribution and i think people are tired of it. it is showing what happens when you underinvest. you get the us is septemberbility of these types of storms. i think that back up power is becoming the kind of thing that homes and businesses have to have. it will become as ubiquitous in our mind as air conditioning. >> what do you prefor your company, if you are indeed seeing this paradigm mind-set? >> that's a good we. we have been growing on a 15 percent compound bases. the underinvestment has been going on for two decades. hour business has been growing as a direct result. >> do you see people rush out to buy generators ahead of storms
and then return them or has your demand become more stable? >> our demand has become stable. people will come out in a storm and buy the small gasoline generators. er with the number one in the u.s. for those types of product. but those are temporary solutions. we are seeing automatic home stand by generator running off natural gas or propane. you saw pictures of people in lines back with sandy in new jersey, the power was out at the gas stations as well. so we do see, we see a shift to more of the automatic solution going forward. >> how much do you have under terms of supply? have you enough for everybody? >> that's great question. our preparation started a couple days ago. we started positionings product, both out of our warehouses in wisconsin. but we also have warehouses on east coast. we have been putting that product into the hands of retailers where most of the prod subject needed initially. a lot of it depends what happens over the weekend. if the outages are here as what is predicted, i think there will
be a massive run on the products again. we do have product still in our warehouses and we are positioning that. it is getting tricky. we have our own ten-inch snow fall here last night. it is nothing like what you are looking at, but getting to wisconsin is tricky. >> but you guys are toucher than we are, aaron. let's just admit that. last question off the weather topic. there is a proposal to mandate back up power for cell phone towers out there. if that occurs, are you going to get a huge chunk of that business? >> we are the number one provider to the telecommunication space. our customers are big major wireless providers. they have been great customers of ours for two decades as they built up their networks. if there is something from a regulatory standpoint that takes place, we stand to have more than others if that were to occur. >> aaron, stay safe. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, guys. >> let's get to the neighbor,
briggs & stratton. they make engines including for my gokart from years ago. todd, i would like to talk about my glory days of gokarting, but i twhaent gooi wasn't that good. do you have distribution and inventory to meet what will be the spike in demand over the northeast. >> yeah, we do. when you look at superstorm sandy, there is obviously a lost units moved and inventory is depleted. we worked countless hours to get that inventory back up. now as we look at it, we have mobilized. we have been looking at the storm the last week or so. ultimately we are moving inventory where it needs to be. we do have inventory in our warehouses as well. and we are ready to go. and we've got our teams. our dealers out there are set to go as well to provide support for all of the people that hopefully, you know, if things go o okay. if it doesn't, we have dealers in place it help them out. >> todd, a moment ago we talked
about crumbling infrastructure and storms recently making people think twice about not having a back up power or general ritor supply. in which case you do all kinds of things as brian said. will generators become an increasingly larger part of your business? >> mandy, we continue to invest a fair amount of money in generators, on the portable side and on the stand-by generator side. we believe that longer term you will get into a situation where these things will become like an appliance. central air conditioning is a great example. where that took off over a number of years, we think that stand-by generators will do the same. and portables are good for immediate relief. you don't have immediate relief for the stand-by unless it is installed already. on the portable side, we invest there as well. at the same time we have other products. for example with the snowstorm we have snow throwers and engines that power snow throwers. so that's an important part of our business as well.
as we look at situations like this to help people out. >> is it all residential or is there also a surge in commercial demand at all, todd? >> yeah, what we see is we play an awful lot in the consumer part, residential part of the business. but we are investing also in kind of the light commercial. so if you think about things like convenient stores and things, where in superstorm sandy, there were issues with the pumps operating. we are focused on that part of the market as well from a commercial standpoint. >> we will talk about trade data from china. to what extent are you feeling squeezed by competition from cheap chinese parts? >> when you look at it mandy, we have been dealing with the chinese competition for a long time now. when you look at it, what we are looking for is a level playing field as it relates to the u.s. versus china in fair freed. free trade-fair trade is how we
look at it. >> is it becoming less as chinese labor can costs go up, though? >> yeah, mandy. what we see is there is a shift. we have been in china since 1986 so we understand what is happening there. we are seeing costs in china go up. it is not just us, it is a number of different companies. that puts a whole different perspective on the competitive landscape as it relates to outdoor power equipment and engines used in that outdoor power equipment. >> so todd, if you and andrew got together and had a tug-of-war, generac, briggs & stratton, who would win? come on, you guys are 15 miles apart. i will buy at kopps. so come on. >> aaron is a very good guy running a very good company. we also have a great company with great employees. >> diplomatic. >> very diplomatic. i apologize for calling aaron angie. my stupid twitter feed.
todd, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> let's check in with sharon eppers epperson, hey, sharon. >> hey, mandy. we are seeing traders and consumers alike fuelling up here in the midst of the storm. we are looking at higher price force gas and heating oil that comes at a rough time for folks because as we have been telling you, gas and prices at the pump highest on record for this time year. in the northeast a lot of folks heat their homes with leading oil. this is going to be a real problem here with the price continuing to rise. we are looking at about a quarter of the northeast that uses heating oil. majority definitely using natural gas. but a lot that uses heating oil and cost of heating oil and that will hit consumers. >> we are tracking it, thank you very much, sharon sfls on deck, the mark set saying, everything's fine. but does that make you nervous? >> later on, fruit fight.
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close at levels since we haven't seen since the heady days of 2000. as we like to say on "street signs," everything is fine. all right, you know, mark, it is nice to say, six weeks straight up but i worry though because what goes up must eventually, what? keep going up? >> i doubt it. >> exactly. what goes up must come down. if you are looking a the what will happen to the markets over the immediate term, obviously we've come a long way in a very short period of time. market look a bit frothy and you the bulls bears ratio is extremely bullish. as a contrarian indicator we would expect when we hit the extreme levels there should be a short term pull back at some point in the near future. however over the course of the next five years which is our investment time for our clients we would expect stocks to significantly out perform bonds. so if you have a longer time horizon, i would stick with the stocks. >> i would imagine a lot of clients come to you and maybe more are coming out of the wood
work when they see these headlines. what do you say to them you? say, yeah, yeah, buy now. or do you say, wait for the pull back? >> i'm not actually waiting for a pull back. if you invest over time, you will do fine and i agree, if you look at five-year timeframe, at the beginning after pretty big bull market, keep in mind people have money you know, almost as hostage in income producing products over the mattress that produces no return. so the idea that bell is ringing a little bit that it might be safe to come back in the water is going to pull a lot of money out of the mattress and i think that's a very big dynamic for this year and probably into next year which is probably buffering any real sell-off. i think the idea that you buy the dips, dips aren't going to get so low before people can come in. >> you know, ken, we seem to be one card away from a full house. we see housing get better. that's a big deal. job market has gotten better. europe, maybe not better, but at least patched.
seems like the card we are still missing is corporate america to start reinvesting through cap ex and hiring more. do you believe this sl be the year we see it? >> i think 2014 will be more of that year. but we will start seeing the green shoots sprout leaves of companies starting to spend the money. the other thing part of this deck of cards is what is going on in the energy complex. such a radically different energy picture now that america has found fracking. whether it is environmentally safe or not is another issue. but what that will do on a global basis, there is even reports at cnbc.com that we can could be energy independent over the next decade. that is huge and a macro theme that companies won't ignore. it'll allow them to onshore manufacturing and they will spend money to absolutely. we talk about u.s. stocks and i
see in your notes you favor emerging markets and european stocks over the u.s. if you do go for the u.s., make sure they have good international exposure. >> yeah. we are having a good earnings season domestically right now. one of the things we are paying atension to is the fact that those u.s. companies generating a significant portion of the revenues from overseas, those are the companies carrying weight as oppose to companies generating most revenues here domestically. beyond that, yes, we like eurozone stocks. we think the best place for us to make money for our clients over the next five years would be a merging markets. now the key things to remember is that we're not necessarily saying that eurozone stocks are going to, you know, be fantastic performers this year in 2013. but when we manage on the five year time horizon, we feel over the course of the next five years, the next is emerge market stocks followed by eurozone and
u.s. stocks at the end of that. >> super quick, with u.s. stocks, have you apple a 59 the top of your list, right? >> exactly. >> are you taking a five-year time horizon on that? >> yeah. it is one of the most undervalued stocks. it is trading at about 8 pe ratio and s&p at 13. can you v companies like microsoft at 15. and i think really what is happening with apple is a lot of the growth investors have fled the stock. and i think over the course of the next several months you will see a lot of value investor start it pile back into the stock and i would expect app toll have no problem finishing off the year. maybe at 600 level or so. >> because it is freaky friday today we will talk about unloved apple and much loved blackberry in a second. mark, ken, keep safe. enjoy the weekend. >> thank you. you too. >> meantime, boeing is clear to start test flights of the dreamliner. phil, how soon do they get up into the air and what kinds of restrictions do they face on this? >> fairly severe when you compare to in the past.
people said, do they just go up and do test flights? no, they always have some kind of restrictions. this time the faa lifts grounding for test flights. be boeing is expected to start test flights in the next couple of days. what you are looking at there is the inside of a dreamliner as they prepare for a test flight. we did that for the documentary. as i said earlier, faa put restrictions on test flights, one of the more interesting ones noted yesterday, 787 test flights cannot be flown over populated areas. so as you look at shares of boeing can be keep this in mind. these test flights are likely to go on for some time here. there is no timeframe for when they think they will ultimately be done. but since the groundings started back on the 17th, look at shares of boeing, moving higher over the last through weeks. pulling off a little bit today. an interesting thing, mandy, $77 is where it was at yesterday. and it is getting close to 7802,
52-week high. despite all this, people have been moving into it the last three weeks. >> the plastic fantastic is actually made out of teflon, it seems, phil. rates may still be low but when do you do when they start to spike? your play book ahead. >> and mystery solved. the real reason the lights went out on the super bowl, next. i'. otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before. this ge jet engine can understand 5,000 data samples per second. which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air. suddenly, faraway places don't seem so...far away. ♪
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happy 41st birthday to the world's first electronic stock market. on this day back in 1971, the nasdaq held the very first day of trade. today it holds more trading volume than any other exchange in the world. i did not know that. that's a good fact oid. >> yeah, 1971. same age as schactman and myself. >> great year. >> clearly a great year for america. great year for cnbc.
>> let's break out the pompoms. >> yes. >> you're the bore, my friend. >> bore as in b-o-r-e. >> take your pick. >> beyonce, you are officially off the hook. we now know who is to blame for the super bowl blackout. the great brian schactman is here with the answer. >> i'm not sure with beyonce being totally off the hook. it was like a sibling fight. no, no, she did it. no, no, he did it. but the utility company was quick to say that it wasn't their fault. but today we learn it was their fault. >> easily to quickly say it wasn't. >> i know, but that's what they wanted to say. ironically, something installed with the express purpose of preventing a power outage was cited as the call. etr saying something called a relay, which i thought was a little thing, but it is actually huge. that's the problem. manufacturer of the relay, company out of chicago, came out and said the part was fine but settings were wrong.
that's another set of fingers pointed at entergy. the equipment is housed in a building outside the superdome. it did not malfunction during the sugar bowl last month, but it is the same. the only difference between the two is the big halftime show. >> and the men's basketball turn many. >> she is not totally off thook >> but somewhere out the back there is a techie in white overalls sweating right now. >> an unbelievable story, no matter whose fault it was. the biggest game in america stopped for 35 minutes? >> because we care about this world, and i will shout out to the cbs folks, live tv, whatever you think, is not easy. on that level, could you imagine the scramble behind the scenes.
and if you can can't add lib, forget it. as i read that. but all of the people in the background did a nice job. >> who knows how it could have taken. half the time was restarting things, the generator. not even that they were scrambling. >> remember star wars when the guy turns off the force field? that's what i envision. the guy with the hat. >> han solo, when he doesn't go to light speed. not my fault. it's not my fault. >> thank you. >> it may not happen soon but it'll happen, mark my word. interest rates will go up, meaningfully. but you don't want it wait for the move. time to start thinking about your portfolio. great to have you with us today alexandra. >> thank you. >> what should we be doing in terms of preparing right now. >> in terms of preparing right now, you have to be taking a stance that interest rates are going to go up.
and given what the fed's been doing, i don't know that we are quite there. what we should talk about is what to do when rates do in fact start going up and there are several things that people in the fixed income market can do. one is keep your durations short. you can buy premium bonds with a short call. again those are less volatile as rates go up. you can also do what i call a modified bar bellport folio. have bonds coming due one, two, three years and longer term bonds. have you shorter bonds that allow to you reinvest at higher rates. if you are wrong or rates go the other way within you still have bonds on the long end and paying a higher coupon. >> as you know, we have the smartest audience on television, but this is complex stuff. how did they begin with, say, a bar bell. what do they do? >> i have a bond portfolio or
sum of cash that you are going t. what you would do is with your financial adviser or if you are doing it on-line with one of the major companies, you will actually buy bonds that mature in one year, two years, three years increments. whatever period of time you believe that rates are going to go up. so it's actually relatively simple to do. >> when do you think rates are significantly going to go up? >> well, i sent that four years ago. i thought rates would go up. i've been saying that every year. i don't think -- >> the fed has foiled your plans. >> yes. so i'm going to leave that to the smarter market prognosticators. but i don't think it is in the next year. >> thank you. thanks for the advice, alexandra. >> thanks. >> how little old berry is making pie out of apple. at least its stock.
>> and china rising again. can a smak be behind it all? "street signs" back after the kbraek. break. all stations come over to mission a for a final go. this is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet... dragon is captured. is connecting today's leading companies to places beyond it. siemens. answers. we all work remotely so this is a big deal, our first full team gathering! i wanted to call on a few people. ashley, ashley marshall... here. since we're often all on the move, ashley suggested we use fedex office
to hold packages for us. great job. [ applause ] thank you. and on a protocol note, i'd like to talk to tim hill about his tendency to use all caps in emails. [ shouting ] oh i'm sorry guys. ah sometimes the caps lock gets stuck on my keyboard. hey do you wanna get a drink later? [ male announcer ] hold packages at any fedex office location. but i am your rmarket data. hey do you wanna get a drink later? i know what you're looking for. i'm not chained to your desk anymore.
but let's begin with a stock starting with google. >> in fact their note is titled, the next google is google. seeing free cash throw around 15% compound annual growth rate. they think youtube could be be a opportunity. many people are underestimating. morgan stanley sees 20% upside to google stock. >> considering it is around record highs. another 20% is quite something. also, aol, what is going on with them? >> i guess you call the original web company. rising nicely. something has happened at aol that hasn't happened in eight years. it grew revenue year over year. first time since '05. revenue about 26 million over consensus. that is well above the 23 cents they made a year ago. keep in mind the float is down. they are buying back stock, right? there is less shares there.
17% growth and in the search business though and 31% jump in aol's third party ad business. >> a couple of casino stocks for us. >> because we triple with the props here. here is the thing. chris christie officially got behind on-line gambling. a bill in new jersey, right -- i keep stepping in the shot. i'll move over this way. there is a bill for gambling. chris christie is behind it. this is the first to support on-line gambling. sees caesars and boyd. >> it's been help. >> philadelphia has gotten casinos now. these stocks are going like this. like this today. >> let's look at coin star. everyone is streaming videos and i would imagine, that's bad for coinstar, right? >> yes. they own the rental dvd kiosk called red box. 20% drop in profit.
down beat guidance. keep in mind, this was a $70 stock last july. >> okay, freaky friday. look at this for a freak fight. rim is crashing apple. i'm not using that word lightly. not just year to date but for the whole year. joining us is robert w. and how did this happen, will? is this freaky friday for the rest of theier? >> i don't think so. i guess every dollar has its day. >> right. >> you should look at you know, blackberry here. a lot of hype around the blackberry. testing the device the last week or so. it is a nice device. but it has to prove it has the eco system to compete with an dr android and apple. >> is it fair it call it a bust? >> they sold 40 million phones the last quarter so i wouldn't
call it a bust. there are things they could have done to position them better. bigger screens are in right now and that is something they can look at. i have concerns that sales could tail off more than the street is expecting. >> what can they do then? put it into perspective for viewers at home, i mean, apple stock at once could do no wrong, is now negative year to date and over the past year as well. >> i will answer the question. go back on iphone 6 to the 30 pin plug instead of the lightning connector. >> all the fault of the plug. will? >> i think there are a couple of things at work here. most importantly for apple, they have to regain the edge. whether it is a bigger screen or apple tv, just improve investors psychology. but one thing we are concerned with is street estimates we think are too high. particularly for june quarter. our concern is that despite some of the recent rally on potential uses of cash, i think it will be
difficult for the stock to really work until numbers are appropriately reset by the street. >> will, is apple and maybe its shareholders gotten too addicted to the boom cycle? new product cycle? like anticipation and falling off once it comes out and kind of, you know, can apple stock look forward in any time soon so more stable growth? >> there has been, you're right, brian, there is a cycle that keeps getting shorter and shorter. we have a nice ramp in iphone shipments and december quarter and they continue to some degree but that doesn't last long. you will have samsung rolling its next product. i have blackberry reentering the fold. competition is stiff. this is consumer electronics. >> will, we talk to generator companies earlier in the show, right? their sales an stocks boom ahead of storms. people rush out and buy the stuff and stock pops and it falls off. apple has gotten into the same thing, right? how can apple train the street
to not be so -- you know, addicted and reliant on these -- the next thing. entire blogs trying to predict what apple's next thing is. >> again, i think that is partly a function of consumer electronics. and it's going to take the street a while to learn that lesson. i that i is something apple is trying to do. in reset its guidance parameters. i think it is trying to get the street to calm down on expectations. i'm not sure the street is there yet. >> will, thank you for joining us. you have a neutral on apple and underperform on bbry. >> next up, herb, he is all hot and bothered by his disaster de jour. and he sure be. he has been warning you about it for a while now. >> could the pop princess be the reason linkedin is soaring? >> what makes me. [ laughter ] what makes me cry --
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about to center the year of the snake? some blananks are claiming this bad news for stocks. are utility companies fully prepared to restore power this weekend? we will talk to pnge coming up. mandy, see you then. >> and here on the mother ship as well. we need sunshine today, don't we? how about fleet corps? fourth quarter earnings jumping 59%. as fuel cards company report tag double-digit revenue gains in north america and abroad. the company offered upbeat guidance for the full year. if you want it, pretty much gave you the full gamut there. as a result, the stock up 11%. >> can't have sunshine without rain, james taylor saying that. here is the disaster. nuance communication. one penny belowest mates and outlook that is disappointing the street. herb greenburg, my friend,
you've been following this name for a while. it is a disaster today. what are you hearing? what do you think? >> i've been following this for years. this is a classic growth by acquisition company. they don't necessarily do well, some will tell you. what i find interesting, this is a case where this is the quarter where it appears reality has hit. i say that because if you look at a supplement the company gives you in the sec filings, there is actually -- they give you organic growth. when you have a company that grows by akry zigs, you want to see how they are growing just from internal growth. it is going down and where it is really going down, that should concern you, is medical product. this is the area, you know, doctors using voice recognition, this is the growth story at the company. h is the first time the company -- >> look at me, i'm on tv. a shot of me for 45 second staring off in the distance whistfully at your might and
intellect. >> this is the first time the company acknowledged, doing this for two quarters, jim cramer mentioned it earlier, they have done this quarter after quart after quarter and why they didn't mention it, i don't know. >> they never mentioned it. >> no. they always said they don't talk about their customers and talk about specific deals. >> okay. as we say, 18% of the done side over the past two dayes. brutal. thank you, herb. >> don't thank him. he is coming back. >> oh, she is coming back. i apologize. >> so folks, herb has been honored, with the best of your professional career. that, my friend, is a tease. >> a heck of a tease. >> export and imports for january beat expectations. new lending sword as well. there is debate as to whether or not that data is to store economic activity up because of the chinese new year on february
10th. let's bring in export gordon complaining from washington. gordon, i was interesting to see when i was reading your report that the china data is no longer reliable that implies it used to be reliable but for whatever reason is no more. why is that? >> what's going on is a number of things. but i think that exporters are creating fictitious transactions in order to get export tax rebates. that's been inflating china's export numbers. ministry of commerce knows this but they haven't been adjusting numbers down. to show you how bad this is, beijing says exports to south korea in 2012, last year, increased by 5.7% but the south koreans say that their imports from china decreased by 6.8%. now those two numbers can't be both correct. and nobody is questioning the south korean numbers. what's happens is we have seen a lot of problems with very low cargo numbers but very high export numbers.
just cannot exist in the same universe. >> how do you know the government knows these numbers are inflated but can't adjust them down? do we have evidence that they know that the numberers are wrong but they put them out anyway? >> i think we know all about this. this is extensively reported for a couple months now. so if they don't know about it in beijing, they just haven't been reading the newspapers. this is not a big secret. and the problem is that a lot of these transactions occur right under their nose. so they have to know that these are going on. especially in export zones where goods are being transferred from one part after bonded warehouse to another. back again, three or four times a day. that increases export numbers but it doesn't really increase export. >> you know, gordon, i agree with you. but let me take a different tact on this. let's say china is making up the numbers. whatever, right? but if the stock market there keeps going up because of it and you believe the government will keep priming the nones, isn't
that sort after reason to bet on the chinese stock market? >> yeah. the chinese stock market. >> we won't let it go down, in other words. >> that's right. the chinese stock market doesn't move on economic fundamentals. the reason we saw a real recovery in the fourth quarter in growth rates is because people understand that beijing would pour even more money into ghost cities. although that is absolutely the wrong thing for the chinese economy because it takes it away from the sustainable growth model. nonetheless, technically creating gdp. if you were in in the beginning of december, you would see on the index, it is up by 25%, basically in a year -- in a month. >> you know, very easy to just dismiss data and say, it is all a bunch of ba lenny. i'm not trading off or whatever. at the same time, even if numbers are massaged, can't we still say that the chinese economy's in a recovery mode? >> it is in recovery mode.
but because they have been pouring money into state infrastructure and economy. they are creating debt faster than the ability to service it. the other thing people have not focused in on is that producer prices are falling signaling deflation. rate of consumer deflation is coming down. how can you have robust growth and deflation at the same time. >> are you talking hard landing? are you talking collapse? >> i'm talking it will be a hard landing. we saw in third quarter, growth was in the 1 to 2% range. look t electricity statistics, manufacturing surveys, price indices, corporate results, it really was under 4%, not the 7.8% that beijing claims so this economy is underperforming. >> got it. really interesting segment. thank you. >> up next, we'll celebrate once again a huge honor for our herbie. our herbie.
we claimed his as ours. >> linkedin crushing it today. what facebook may be able to learn from that company, coming up. no they don't. hey son. have fun tonight. ♪ ♪ back against the wall ♪ ain't nothin to me ♪ ain't nothin to me [ crowd murmurs ] hey! ♪ [ howls ] ♪ but we can still help you see your big picture. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track and use fidelity's analytics to spot trends, gain insights, and figure out what you want to do next. all in one place. i'm meredith stoddard and i helped create the fidelity guided portfolio summary. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
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mr. herb greenberg, you are officially a member of the 1%, herbie, not that 1% that you were thinking. the linkedin 1%. one of the most viewed profiles on linkedin which is actually a pretty big consideration, considering linkedin has more than 200 million users. you're right up there. >> that's great, absolutely fabulous. there are a number of 1%. i'm proud of it. a lot going on at linkedin which is kind of fascinating. >> you've been talking about it for a while. >> yes. >> i'm not on facebook but i'm on linkedin, sort of. let's dig into it a little more why it's so popular. we know herb is a fan. so is the street. stock rising. a huge quarter. all the metrics up. people spending more time on the site. it may have something to do with katy perry. let's bring in tim mchugh, equity research management. herb is also here. tim, why is linkedin doing so
well and what's the katy perry relationship? >> i couldn't tell you a lot about katy perry, but, you know, they are doing very well obviously in the stock market today. the biggest encouragement was really that the growth rate stayed at a high level longer than people thought. their growth rate had been decelerating from 100 plus levels for the last few quarters and this level leveled off at 84% which i think people are very encouraged about. >> to what extent are all the good points about linkedin priced in at these valuations? >> well, that is -- that is my concern. that's why i'm ahead of market perform. you know, if you project this out, you know, four, five years which is what most of the bullish people on the stock are doing, it becomes tough to make this valuation make sense, in my view, but in the near term they continue to do a very good job of setting expectations at levels they know they can beat and delivering very strong growth which is -- which is what
many of the investors like right now. >> you know, tim, this is herb greenberg. it's interesting as a member of their influence in this program, about 200 of us out there right now and it's a growing list. they mentioned it on the conference call. i think what's fascinating about it and what you learn from it, and as jim cramer and i talked about offline, almost a tell on the company, is the quality of the people reading those posts. can you see it in the comments. such a high quality, high demographic. what do you think that says about what's really going on behind the scenes as a business and the value of the business of linkedin? >> well, i mean, that's important. one of the influence of the program, as well as many other things, is part of what has helped drive a pickup and engagement this last quarter which has been a concern. linkedin has already had more demand for ads than they have had for supply and the challenge has been relative to other social media sites has been driving that user engagement up, so they have tried a variety of other things in the last year and they are showing some traction lately with doing that.
the one thing i would say -- >> i was going to say, apparently it's because the design staff like katy perry said the hooks were so simple but everybody knew them, they wanted to simplify their site, sort of using the katy perry song model. we know people are spending 70% more time than they used to on the site. how big of a deal was the redesign for linkedin, in your view? >> i think -- i mean, it's certainly hard. it's something that's somewhat impossible to measure partly because i said they tried a number of things in the last year so isolating that one factor is tough to quantify. going back to what you said before about the high end of the user base, one thing i would say is the user base is starting to shift a little bit, and part of the success you're seeing in the numbers is actually a broadening of the user base to include not just high-end white collar professionals but a broader collection of the population which is why they are growing things like job postings and other things on the talent
solution side. >> apparently not a huge katy perry, which we won't hold against you, tim. anything that's a reason to come back. >> excuse me. a live tv and having a real coughing fit. >> speaking you. >> excuse me. >> excuses, excuses. that's our next segment. 50-day moving average, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i saw the trend. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it looked really strong. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i jumped right on it. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 since i've switched to charles schwab... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ...i've been finding opportunities like this tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a lot more easily. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 like today, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i was using their streetsmart edge trading platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i saw a double bottom form. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i called one of their trading specialists tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i bounced a few ideas off of him. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 they're always there for me. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i've got tools that let me customize my charts tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and search for patterns as they happen. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 plus webinars, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 live workshops, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 research. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 whatever i need. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so when that double bottom showed up, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i was ready to make my move. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 all for $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 can you believe it?